10* Over Stars/Lightning (8:05 ET): The Stars continue to defy the odds as they took Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 4-1. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, the last nine of which have all come as underdogs on the money line. This run of theirs has caused me great consternation as I’ve been predicting their downfall going all the way back to the Colorado series. Sometimes you need to know when to “cut bait,” I suppose. Here we are turning to the total as I see Game 2 of the SCF going Over.

Tampa Bay had been rolling through the postseason, losing only four games in the first three rounds. Like Vegas did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals, the Lightning significantly outshot the Stars in Game 1 (36-20!). But that didn’t matter as Anton Khudobin (.950 save percentage vs. Vegas) stopped all but one of the 36 shots he faced. Khudobin’s run is bound to have a “slip up” or two as no goalie can possibly maintain that kind of save percentage over the long-term, especially when facing so many shots on a consistent basis.

The Lightning MAY get Steven Stamkos back for Game 2, but regardless I expect a bounce back effort offensively. They are averaging 38.8 shots over the L5 games, an excellent number, yet are also averaging only 2.2 goals over the same frame. Their L4 games have all gone Under or pushed and the Under is now 5-2-2 their L9 games. The Under is 4-0-2 in Dallas’ last six games, so I’d say the Over is “due” to hit for both teams, both of which are averaging 3.0 goals per game this postseason. 10* Over Stars/Lightning